The Association for Psychological Science Improves Success Rate from 95% to 100% by Dropping Hypothesis Testing: The Sample Mean is the Sample Mean, Type-I Error 0%

The editor of Psychological Science published an Editorial with the title “Business Not as Usual.” (see also Observer interview and new Submission Guidelines) The new submission guidelines recommend the following statistical approach.

Effective January 2014, Psychological Science recommends the use of the “new statistics”—effect sizes, confidence intervals, and meta-analysis—to avoid problems associated with null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST). Authors are encouraged to consult this Psychological Science tutorial by Geoff Cumming, which shows why estimation and meta-analysis are more informative than NHST and how they foster development of a cumulative, quantitative discipline. Cumming has also prepared a video workshop on the new statistics that can be found here.

The editorial is a response to the current crisis in psychology that many findings cannot be replicated and the discovery that numerous articles in Psychological Science show clear evidence of reporting biases that lead to inflated false-positive rates and effect sizes (Francis, 2013).

The editorial is titled “Business not as usual.”  So what is the radical response that will ensure increased replicability of results published in Psychological Science? One solution is to increase transparency and openness to discourage the use of deceptive research practices (e.g., not publishing undesirable results or selective reporting of dependent variables that showed desirable results). The other solution is to abandon null-hypothesis significance testing.

Problem of the Old Statistics: Researchers had to demonstrate that their empirical results could have occurred only with a 5% probability if there is no effect in the population.

Null-hypothesis testing has been the main method to relate theories to empirical data. An article typically first states a theory and then derives a theoretical prediction from the theory. The theoretical prediction is then used to design a study that can be used to test the theoretical prediction. The prediction is tested by computing the ratio of the effect size and sampling error (signal-to-noise) ratio. The next step is to determine the probability of obtaining the observed signal-to-noise ratio or an even more extreme one under the assumption that the true effect size is zero. If this probability is smaller than a criterion value, typically p < .05, the results are interpreted as evidence that the theoretical prediction is true. If the probability does not meet the criterion, the data are considered inconclusive.

However, non-significant results are irrelevant because Psychological Science is only interested in publishing research that supports innovative novel findings. Nobody wants to know that drinking fennel tea does not cure cancer, but everybody wants to know about a treatment that actually cures cancer. So, the main objective of statistical analyses was to provide empirical evidence for a predicted effect by demonstrating that an obtained result would occur only with a 5% probability if the hypothesis were false.

Solution to the problem of Significance Testing: Drop the Significance Criterion. Just report your sample mean and the 95% confidence interval around it.

NoNeedForNull

Eich claims that “researchers have recognized,…, essential problems with NHST in general, and with dichotomous thinking (“significant” vs. “non-significant” ) thinking it engenders in particular. It is true that statisticians have been arguing about the best way to test theoretical predictions with empirical data. In fact, they are still arguing. Thus, it is interesting to examine how Psychological Science found a solution to the elusive problem of statistical inference. The answer is to avoid statistical inferences altogether and to avoid dichotomous thinking. Does fennel tea cure cancer? Maybe, 95%CI d = -.4 to d = +4. No need to test for statistical significance. No need to worry about inadequate sample sizes. Just do a study and report your sample means with a confidence interval. It is that easy to fix the problems of psychological science.

The problem is that every study produces a sample mean and a confidence interval. So, how do the editors of Psychological Science pick the 5% of submitted manuscripts that will be accepted for publication? Eich lists three criteria.

  1. What will the reader of this article learn about psychology that he or she did not know (or could not have known) before?

The effect of manipulation X on dependent variable Y is d = .2, 95%CI = -.2 to .6. We can conclude from this result that it is unlikely that the manipulation leads to a moderate decrease or a strong increase in the dependent variable Y.

  1. Why is that knowledge important for the field?

The finding that the experimental manipulation of Y in the laboratory is somewhat more likely to produce an increase than a decrease, but could also have no effect at all has important implications for public policy.

  1. How are the claims made in the article justified by the methods used?

The claims made in this article are supported by the use of Cumming’s New Statistics. Based on a precision analysis, the sample size was N = 100 (n = 50 per condition) to achieve a precision of .4 standard deviations. The study was preregistered and the data are publicly available with the code to analyze the data (SPPS t-test groups x (1,2) / var y.).

If this sounds wrong to you and you are a member of APS, you may want to write to Erich Eich and ask for some better guidelines that can be used to evaluate whether a sample mean or two or three or four sample means should be published in your top journal.

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